WHO VOTED FOR ONE NATION & WHY?
Analysing Voter Influences in the 2026 Farrer By-Election
59.1%
One Nation primary vote
34.76%
Swing TOWARD One Nation
–31.7%
Swing AWAY from Liberals
FIRST
Lower house seat in 30 years
Farrer By-Election • 9 May 2026
Context: Setting the Scene
What is Farrer?
- Large rural electorate in south-west NSW
- Traditionally a safe Liberal seat since 1949
- Economy based on farming, agriculture & regional services
- Held for 25 years by Sussan Ley — until her February 2026 resignation after losing the Liberal leadership
- Labor chose NOT to run a candidate
Why One Nation Won
- Liberal & National primary votes collapsed (combined ~20%)
- One Nation went from 6.6% at 2025 federal election → 42% first preference
- Coalition preferenced One Nation on how-to-vote cards
- Rising rural anger at cost-of-living, immigration & 'net zero' energy policy
- Global trend of populist parties gaining ground
📍 Farrer is the second-largest electorate in NSW by area — predominantly rural, farming communities.
Key Issues That Drove the Vote
What mattered most to Farrer voters in 2026
💸 Cost of Living
Rising prices for fuel, groceries & utilities hit rural households hardest. Voters felt major parties were not addressing regional economic pressure.
🌾 Agriculture & Water
Farley prioritised 'disciplined water and land management aligned with national security' — directly resonating with farmers in the Murray-Darling region.
🛂 Immigration
One Nation pushed for 'sustainable immigration settings' — reducing migration to ease pressure on schools, hospitals and the labour market.
⚡ Energy & 'Net Zero'
Farley slammed net zero policy: "It's not what Australia wants." Many rural voters fear renewable energy mandates threaten farming land and energy costs.
🏥 Regional Services
Investment in regional hospitals, schools and telecommunications — a direct counter to the perception that governments focus only on cities.
🗳️ Protest Vote
Deep disillusionment with both Liberal and Labor led many conservative voters to look for a radical alternative rather than stay home.
One Nation's Campaign Tactics
How did One Nation persuade voters?
The 'Battler' Candidate
David Farley presented as a local agribusiness man — 'born and raised in Narrandera', grandson of WWI serviceman. This authenticity narrative contrasted with career politicians.
Populist Messaging
Simple slogans targeting 'uniparty' politics. Promised to 'hold government accountable.' Framed One Nation as the only voice for rural Australians ignored by Canberra.
Social Media & Digital Ads
Heavy investment in Facebook/Meta ads targeting rural NSW demographics. Video content amplified on YouTube. Pauline Hanson's large existing social media following drove organic reach.
Opposition Attacks: GetUp
GetUp sent 100,000 text messages to voters warning about One Nation's 'billionaire backers' and raised $500,000+ in anti-One Nation ads. Despite this, One Nation won decisively.
Coalition Preferences
The Liberal and National parties directed preferences toward One Nation on how-to-vote cards — a key structural advantage in the preferential voting system.
Media Coverage
Pauline Hanson's presence at campaign events generated significant national media. The 'historic first' narrative gave One Nation free publicity across TV, radio and news sites.
Influences on Voters
Media
- Sky News & News Corp gave One Nation sympathetic airtime
- Anti-One Nation coverage in ABC/SMH reinforced their 'outsider' brand
- Social media echo chambers amplified populist messaging
Emotions
- Fear of immigration and cultural change
- Anger at cost-of-living pressures
- Distrust of 'establishment' parties after repeated scandals
- Pride in regional identity — feeling overlooked by cities
Self-Interest
- Farmers wanting water & land policy reform
- Regional workers wanting better services & wages
- Small business owners frustrated by red tape and energy costs
Group Identity
- Rural vs urban — strong 'us and them' sentiment
- Coalition supporters abandoned their party but stayed 'conservative'
- Global trend: far-right parties gaining globally (UK, USA, Europe)
Fact-Checking One Nation's Claims
A critical literacy exercise — what did they say, what is the evidence?
Misleading
"Immigration is destroying our hospitals and schools."
Hospital and school pressure is real — but caused by multiple factors including funding cuts, population growth, and workforce shortages. Immigration alone is not the driver. Net overseas migration fell sharply after COVID.
Contested
"Net zero will destroy Australian farming and cost families a fortune."
Some renewable projects do affect agricultural land. Energy transition costs are debated. However, modelling shows long-term energy price falls from renewables. The full picture is complex.
Partially True
"The major parties have abandoned rural Australia."
There is genuine evidence of underinvestment in rural infrastructure, healthcare and broadband. This grievance has bipartisan acknowledgement, though solutions differ.
Check It
"One Nation represents the ordinary Australian battler."
Opponents (inc. GetUp) highlighted Farley's background as an agribusiness executive and links to major donors. Voters should investigate who funds political parties and what interests they represent.
The Big Picture: What Does This Mean?
Political Implications
- First One Nation lower house seat in 30-year party history
- Signals fragmentation of Australia's traditional two-party system
- Liberal Party crisis: lost a 'safe' seat — 31.7% swing away from them
- Labor's choice not to contest avoided a further protest vote splitting
- One Nation may now target more rural lower house seats
- Mirrors global trend: far-right populist gains in USA, UK, Europe & beyond
🤔 Questions for Active Citizens
- Who benefits from One Nation's policies — farmers or investors?
- How did media coverage shape perceptions of the result?
- Is a protest vote an effective way to drive change?
- Can populism solve complex policy problems?
- What is YOUR responsibility as a future voter?
Sources: ABC News, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, The Chronicle AI, AEC (Australian Electoral Commission) — For educational use.